first of all i would like to remind everyone of a chart i posted like a week ago , its a daily chart explaining the trend characteristics for the AUD.USD within the last year or so , i stated in that chart that every rally comes at 800 pips average end then a ret, emerges that tales the price back to at least the 20 MA before any rebound and that was a magical chart actually for anyone who was lucky enough to follow it , as the trend did retrace and even broke the 20 MA with around 400-500 pips move down.
i m posting here a new daily chart explaining some conditions where the trend broke the 20 MA , most of the times if not all the times , it came back to test the bollinger band bottom or at least 20-30 pips away from if before rebounding , in such cases the trend was in the upside move , is some other consolidation periods it slammed down from the bottom of the Bollinger band support and went 100 of pips below it , but in our case here i anticipate at least a test of the bottom of this bollinger band at 82 or below before the trend decides where to go next , and that's 200 pips below our current position , but i would start doubting in this chart if the price breaks above the 20MA AT 8550 , Which could signal for a deeper ret.
on our short term chart here i m looking at 2 scenarios , a 4th wave already formed at 85 and a new low to come , or we might see little more complicated correction 4th wave to more upside targets , i m seeing 8550 as significant resistance and i ll be building a short position from there , if we break below 8380 i ll start looking at the scenario where the 4th wave already formed and the 5th wave on the way .
we will see where to go from there as soon as i get any confirmation on any of these scernaios .
stay alerted to the twitter for more updates .
No comments:
Post a Comment