July Results

BP.USD S 1.5315 Closed 54 -85
GBP.USD S 1.5365 Closed 54 -35
AUD.JPY S 7792 Closed 7808 -16
EUR.USD L 2700 Closed 2625 +25
EUR.USD L 2700 Closed 2715 +15
AUD.USD L 8805 Closed 8845 +40
AUD.USD L 8805 Closed 8835 +30
CAD.JPY S 8315 Closed 8375 -50
AUD.USD S 8545 Closed 8515 +35
EUR.USD L 2550 Closed 2640 +90
EUR.USD L 2550 Closed 2590 +40
AUD.USD S 8460 Closed 8460 0
AUD.USD S 8360 Closed 8380 -20

Total On July +64

Very very weak results but i wasnt active most of the month as i was on vacation plus this month market moves was soo Odd most of the times so at the end going out of the worst trading month with positive results is positive , but anyways hope next month will be much better as i ll be more active

Hot Chart

There is 2 possible EW counts for that long term GBP.usd chart , they both pointing down , and the 1.5 will be the key level to decide whether that will be a correction to c wave or a new down-leg emerging , a break of the top will invalidate the Alternative count which shows the last down leg and wave 1 and we r now at wave 2 with wave 3 to go

Took some fast EUR.USD long trade and went out fast with some profits as alerted on the twitter , staying on the side lines to analyzing to see if this is the top or correction ,, if this confirms to be a double top ,, it could get ugly for the bulls .
lets wait and see

I haven't been posting in a while now as the market entered the most boring consolidation in the last few days and i couldn't be certain of a break out direction so i didn't want to throw myself into it blindly while i have a 50% 50% bias for both direction .
yesterday i went long on AUD.USD and made some profits before it reverse at 8850 , if u follow me on twitter u should have made profits as well , i ll be posting some charts at the end of the day as i m monitoring how the market will react to the key levels its trying to break right now .

Accurate Hot Chart

i would like to bring up that chart that i put here over the week end where i showed that the trend is to at least test the down bollingerband support at 83 before it decides where to go next , and that was a very accurate analysis as it did came back and tested it as happened before multi times as shown in the hot chart

Trade Closure

After the trend reversed to took out our position with 35 Pips profit , i m moving out of the AUD.USD and going into the chart the holds the clearest Elliott waves setup in all pairs ,,, CAD.JPY , as its shown on the chart , it holds a clear 4th wave triangle with the 5th wave to go soon ,, the risk is very good defined here on the chart as i cant see the price noise that i see in the AUD EUR and the complex correction there , the risk will be limited to a break up from the pattern at 83.80 , the break of the bottom confirms this count and signals the start of wave 5 , first target is 80.50 .
a very important notice on the chart is that wave 1 is bigger than wave 3 so wave 5 cant be bigger than wave 3 as that will make wave 3 the smallest in this wave and that will invalidate the count ,, so i ll be cautious on taking out profit as early as possible .
the trade is ,,, short half position at 83
second half at 83.35 , stops 83.90 first take profit at 80.60

its very common that wave E ends before the test of the triangle upper line and thats why i m building this position before that test , and if i see a break of the 82 level i might jump in with a short ,, stay alerted to my twitter
GL

Trades Updates

ok guys ,, nice start for the month after a good EUR long at 1.2550 first TP 1.2590 2nd TP 1.2640 with a total of 130 pips profit on that trade to push our month balance up to positive .
we have AUD.USD short at 8545 with SL 8650 TP open ,
this time i m gonna give everyone a hint and scenarios for this trade ,,, i suspect that this could be the top for the risk as the dollar index tested this critical 84 level or little beyond and rebounded , same for the s&p 500 as it tested the former previous 4th wave and went down ,, this could be a promising trade so as soon as it goes down to test the 8480 level , i might set the SL at 8560 and wait to see how strong it ll rebound from there ,, there is a possibility that it could go to new highs as the momentum on that move up was high so it could turn from a winning trade to a losing one which might upset anyone following this blog.
so i recommend if anyone had more than 1 lot in ,, take half out at 8480 and leave the rest to work ,, if u have only 1 lot or un-splittable position , then its ur choice to take it off at 8480 or to leave it to work ,, for me ,, i m gonna leave it working and if it breaks the 84 level i ll add more.
GL

Trade Position Update

Longed EUR.USD FULL POSITION AT 1.2550 , CLOSED HALF POSITION AT 1.2590 +40 PIPS
SECOND HALF CLOSE ORDER AT 1.2640 SL 1.2550

EUR.USD TRADE

Long EUR.USD 1.2550 SL 1.2475 TP 1.2640

Trade Book For June

AUD.JPY S 75.00 Closed 73.5 +150
AUD.JPY S 75.00 Closed 74.20 +80
AUD.USD S 8200 Closed 8350 -150
AUD.JPY S 77.10 Closed 77.30 -20
AUD.USD S 8670 Closed 8630 +40
AUD.USD S 8840 Closed 8680 +160
AUD.USD S 8840 Closed 8725 +115
GBP.USD L 1.4815 Closed 1.4810 -5
AUD.USD L 8640 Closed 8635 -5
AUD.USD S 8580 Closed 8575 +5
AUD.USD L 8450 Closed 8630 +180
AUD.USD L 8315 Closed 8290 -25
AUD.USD S 8435 closed 8110 +325
AUD.USD S 8395 closed 8465 +70
AUD.USD L 8380 closed 8330 -50
AUD.USD L 8310 closed 8460 +150
AUD.USD S 8460 closed 8380 +80
AUD.USD S 8320 closed 8380 -60
CAD.JPY L 85.10 closed 86.60 +150
CAD.JPY S 84.30 closed 86.80 -250

TOTAL ( JUNE ) profits +930 PIPS

EUR.USD Analysis

i m showing here a very interesting chart for the EUR.USD , that's the 2 hours chart showing a possible end for this strong up move , divergence already forming on RSI OSC and MACD intersection on such a high overbought level giving strong signal of a coming ret. , i m seeing another push higher to that resistance zone shown on the chart from 1.2630-40 to 1.27 , i m seeing a very strong resistance there as multi FIB. level lies there and with this trend falling deep into the overbought levels its very very unlikely to me to break up on such conditions , the RSI on te daily at a level not seen since the start of the crash down from 1.51 so i ll be little cautious for calling a bearish extreme case to new lows but i m seeing at least a reasonable correction to relief the trend from this overbought levels before deciding where to go

AUD.USD Analysis

first of all i would like to remind everyone of a chart i posted like a week ago , its a daily chart explaining the trend characteristics for the AUD.USD within the last year or so , i stated in that chart that every rally comes at 800 pips average end then a ret, emerges that tales the price back to at least the 20 MA before any rebound and that was a magical chart actually for anyone who was lucky enough to follow it , as the trend did retrace and even broke the 20 MA with around 400-500 pips move down.
i m posting here a new daily chart explaining some conditions where the trend broke the 20 MA , most of the times if not all the times , it came back to test the bollinger band bottom or at least 20-30 pips away from if before rebounding , in such cases the trend was in the upside move , is some other consolidation periods it slammed down from the bottom of the Bollinger band support and went 100 of pips below it , but in our case here i anticipate at least a test of the bottom of this bollinger band at 82 or below before the trend decides where to go next , and that's 200 pips below our current position , but i would start doubting in this chart if the price breaks above the 20MA AT 8550 , Which could signal for a deeper ret.
on our short term chart here i m looking at 2 scenarios , a 4th wave already formed at 85 and a new low to come , or we might see little more complicated correction 4th wave to more upside targets , i m seeing 8550 as significant resistance and i ll be building a short position from there , if we break below 8380 i ll start looking at the scenario where the 4th wave already formed and the 5th wave on the way .
we will see where to go from there as soon as i get any confirmation on any of these scernaios .
stay alerted to the twitter for more updates .