Tuesday, August 3, 2010

The Dollar Index


Finally, i m back from vacation and starting my blog activity again , the markets recently has been moving in big risk on swings to break big levels that i didn't expect to get broken that soon , as we reach 1.32 in EUR and 0.9250 in AUD and almost 1.6 in GBP , i have some doubts now in the bearish scenario , its quite hard to trade in a market while u don't have a ( Clear long term Bias ) to plan the short and medium term analysis and trades on but i was looking around for something that i can build at least a short or medium term Bias upon and i came cross the Dollar Index Chart.
as shown in the chart we reached an extreme over sold level on the RSI around 24 , as we go back to 2006-2010 , i can recognize that every time we reached this level we seen at least a short term bounce and sometimes a big reversal in the trend.
as i move through all other AUD , EUR , GBP , charts it shows that we r finishing a 5th wave up move very shortly and we will witness at least a correction after that supported by the dollar index scenario .
i wont try to pinpoint a clear long term bias yet but i ll try to take advantage of that turn around coming up soon and as it develops i ll then start to analyze to build my long term bias which i see very important and the first step in every trade plan.
i dont see the dollar index breaking lower from the 80 level with that RSI condition , so i ll plan the next trade open that possibility

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