AUD.USD Chart Update

Aussie just finished wave 1 of wave 3 on multi degrees down , expecting some short term ret. here in to the resistance area shown on the chart , 8910-60 is the resistance area to watch , i m planning on hitting for a short with 9020 stops on that ret.

Charts Update

Charts cant get anymore better than that , Eur.usd as i shown in the weekend chart was looking so weak although we have seen quite a rally in the commodities after the news but it couldnt help the Eur to break the top of the bearish flag and if it had a chance to gain momentum to do so , it would have been on that GDP news on friday .
Eur.usd now broken below the bearish flag after the charm of the commodities bounce faded , i ll be looking to stablish a short position against the top as soon as i see any kind of short term bounce to test the bottom resistance line of the flag .
i also called on the twitter a top in the Aussie below 9050 which was very accurate as well , and its now testing support near 89 , will be looking to short it as well when i see a proper bounce .
as shown in the Aussie chart , it went down right from the resistance zone i shown on the weekend chart between the 2 red lines , charts cant get anymore accurate than that :)

Weekend Technical analysis (S&P500 , $I , Aud , Eur )

Morning traders , just a little look around through the charts and market moves we have witnessed on Friday after the GPD q/q Came out at 1.6 better than expected at 1.5 and bernanke dovish testimony , the equity markets gained some momentum to bounce off the important lows it was testing at around 1040-1050 level which i warned about before in previous Blog posts , and risk currencies rallied specially the commodities Like Aud And Cad in to around 100 pips high against the dollar while the Euro looked kinda weak in compared to this rallies and couldn't break above the bearish consolidation flag it has been in for sometime now.
- S&P 500
looking at the charts ,, starting with the s&p 500 , as shown in the charts , we have a head and shoulders pattern developing on the 1H chart which needs to break above 1032 level to validated it and take the prices to possibly new highs of the year , 1040-50 level needs to hold to keep this scenario possible as i dont see any support till the yearly low to hold the trend of it break down from it and that will take as to the daily chart head and shoulders pattern that has been developing for like few month now , this scenario if validation will take the equities to a dramatically slide down , but in this case we must have a solid fundamental case as well to validate this count which i cant see for sure right now , but planning the trades comes out from the daily and monthly charts first and deepen into the hourly charts , and i cant turn my back on this possibility as i see it quite clear on the charts.
- Eur.Usd
as shown in the chart its still contaminated within the Bearish flag pattern and needs to break up from it to invalidate it and the 1-2 1-2 Elliott wave Bearish scenario , i m expecting the 1.2800-50 level to possibly contain the trend if it continues to act weaker against the dollar than the other commodities currencies , i m looking at another Elliott wave count that puts 1.2910 as the wave 4 top which will act now as resistance to hold the trend for possible Wave C Or 3 slide lower , in case this line got broken , i would still need to see a rally to 1.32 or a break of the 1032 level in the s&p 500 to get more optimistic regarding the eur future but for now , i would rather trade the Aussie lower as the risk that can be put against the yearly top is limited to around 200 pips , rather that the Eur

- Aud.usd
as shown in last week chart , i m still seeing the kind of move down we have seen last week as a correction similar to what happened before on the way up and i need to see it breaking down from 88 level to validate the 3 wave or possible c wave correction down , if i see the price action trading near the yearly highs i would possibly take a short trade with low leverage and limited risk for possible break down the lows , , that would come at around 90 / 91 resistance zone , still i wont be confident with such trade cause the daily chart looking much like a correction than an impulsive move down , but at the end we r at the middle of the top and bottom area and the direction should be known pretty soon and the s&p 500 will shape the next move , i m expecting more gains in the risk currencies by Monday and possibility Tuesday which will put all currencies very close to a medium term levels to test , will keep the charts updated to possibly try to capture the next move with maximum efficiency

- The dollar index looking like it ll head for a correction after 5 waves up which could be wave 1 of 3 or wave b of 2 , in either cases , i m seeing the next 2 candles or so bearish then if the 81 level holds we could see the next leg up in the dollar

Cheers (( Sherien ))

AUD.USD Analysis

As i said before that so far the move down in the Aussie looking so much like the previous correction we have seen in this move up and a break of the trend line support will be needed to be more confident in the downtrend

A Look To The Eur & Aud Charts

A Look To The Eur & Aud Charts ,as shown in the chart , the EUR.USD forming what looks like to be a bearish 2nd wave flag with the 3rd wave of the 3rd wave ready to explode , this 2 bearish counts for the eur and aud will be invalidated as the red line shown on the charts is broken , its the 1.28 in the eur and 0.8980 in the Aussie .
although when i look to the Aussie chart , its still looking like a corrective move unless the trend line at 8770 is broken and that strong support laying there will need a high momentum to break it down and that will ideally be the 3rd wave of the 3rd wave down and then the bearish count will come fully in play , the tomorrow's news will be ideal as well to form a strong move up to invalidate the bearish scenario or a strong move down to break the strong supports we r seeing in almost all charts , i would trade very carefully and with tight stop loss till i see a count validated then i will be looking for entries to ride it up or down .
what makes me hesitated to pick a scenario like the bearish as shown in the charts and trade it is that i find the s&p 500 on a very strong support lies between 1040-1050 which held the trend line on Mai and June and might act supporting here as well and form a head and shoulders pattern which might turn the equities very bullish in the short and medium and long term , so i need to see this level been broken and a daily close beyond it to invalidate this bullish possibility i had in mind.

EUR.USD Chart Update

AUD.USD Chart Update

exactly as shown in the last chart , wave 1 ended at 8950 as a leading diagonal wave one , wave 2 ended at the second level i shown on the last chart at 9017 , wave 3 of 3 on the way which will come in high momentum down , i had a short off 9020 , i put the sl now at 9010 and will put it down as i see the 8860 break down .
last chart was nothing but a charm :)

AUD.USD Chart Update

this could be the wave count that is developing now , a break of 8950 is needed to turn the focus down and validate the wave 3 of 3 down count

EUR.USD Analysis

some clear waves starting to form up in the EUR.USD as shown in the chart , although i m concentrating on the AUD.USD for now as the risk is limited in my prospective for trading it but still a short in the Euro could work out well .
i m taking a light shot at the Eur with very limited risk , i m shorting of market here 1.2810 with 1.2850 sl and target open for now

AUD.USD Analysis

HI TRADERS , i m looking now at 2 possible EW counts for the current AUD.USD price action , both of them pointing lower unless the 9085 level is broke .
both scenarios pointing lower but with different timing , i was into the count that refers at 9050 as the end of wave 2 with wave 3 on the way , but i have little doubts in that now as i see Divergence on the OSC and some indicators as shown in the bottom of the chart that points to a possible short term bounce which might be wave to of an leading diagonal wave one in the wave 3 or c down as shown in the charts ,normally wave 3 of 3 comes with high momentum and i didn't feel it in this current wave which made me book some profits and leave a unit working and will add to it on a bounce if it materialize .
will alerts on entries into this trade on twitter

Dollar index call came true

Regardless that i m not that active as before this past few weeks but my last chart was a charm , calling an ending diagonal in the AUD,USD and supported by a very accurate Dollar index chart ,, as much as the markets was confusing the last few weeks with rick rallying , but when i put myself away from all this noise and even look for a simple RSI analysis for the dollar index to indicate that the big support of the 80 level wont break at this RSI levels and call a bounce which will be supported by the exhausted rally in risk ,, it worked very well and i hope regardless that i m not trading as active as before that ppl made good use of it

AUD.USD Analysis

regardless of the Elliott waves count that i can put on this chart but the pattern that has been forming and the divergance shown at the bottom of the chart supported by the Dollar index earlier chart , i see some correction coming very soon and only a break of 9250 will invalidate this pattern from my prospective , i m willing to sell the break down of this pattern of the touch high at 92

i m moving today to a pair that i didn't trade for long time , the USD.CHF , as i can see that its the only pair that the dollar has been stably gaining or ranging for a while , today i have seen a close above the 1.05 level which is the daily 20 MA , i see a test of the 1.06 level coming up with probably a break above following it , i m putting buy orders around the 1.05 level with sl at 1.0450 and taking profits at the test of the 1.06 level , might keep a part of the position for this possible break up , will alert on the Twitter for position updates , i m also having the AUD and the EUR on my radar but for all this suffer choppy market movements , i wont be looking to analyze it or the s&p 500 as well from the Elliott Waves prospective cause its very confusing at the moments with alot of equal possibilities but i m planning this trade upon the chart i posted yesterday for the dollar index which have seen already a small bounce today that took the RSI up a bit from the oversold levels but still looking for at least a short term reversal for the dollar trend on yesterdays chart

The Dollar Index

Finally, i m back from vacation and starting my blog activity again , the markets recently has been moving in big risk on swings to break big levels that i didn't expect to get broken that soon , as we reach 1.32 in EUR and 0.9250 in AUD and almost 1.6 in GBP , i have some doubts now in the bearish scenario , its quite hard to trade in a market while u don't have a ( Clear long term Bias ) to plan the short and medium term analysis and trades on but i was looking around for something that i can build at least a short or medium term Bias upon and i came cross the Dollar Index Chart.
as shown in the chart we reached an extreme over sold level on the RSI around 24 , as we go back to 2006-2010 , i can recognize that every time we reached this level we seen at least a short term bounce and sometimes a big reversal in the trend.
as i move through all other AUD , EUR , GBP , charts it shows that we r finishing a 5th wave up move very shortly and we will witness at least a correction after that supported by the dollar index scenario .
i wont try to pinpoint a clear long term bias yet but i ll try to take advantage of that turn around coming up soon and as it develops i ll then start to analyze to build my long term bias which i see very important and the first step in every trade plan.
i dont see the dollar index breaking lower from the 80 level with that RSI condition , so i ll plan the next trade open that possibility