Closing Position

Just closed my last position short of AUD.JPY short at 73.50 with 150 pips profit ,, closing the month at 930 pips profit ,, just 70 pips away from my 1000 pips target ,, the AUD.USD SHORT at 82 Which messed my TP at 8060 and went deep in negative slowed me down with negative 150 pips , it was a good trade but didn't manage to tweet moving the sl to break even , if we didn't have this bad trade that closed at 150 pips negative we would have been on target but anyways , it wont happen again

Trade Position Update

As Alerted on the twitter and shown on the charts ,, i stated that i ll short of the resistance levels i pointed and if it breaks the low only by touching the first resistance which it did at 76 , i ll be shorting of the bottom break .
the full position short at 75 closed half of it at 74.20 as alerted on the twitter and we have the second half working with Stop Loss at 74 to lock on 100 pips profits .

i had a very old short for the AUD.USD at 82 that i left behind for sometime now cause i was sure it ll pick it up later , i was to close it at 8390 but when i seen this strong move down i took advantage and closed it at 8350 for 150 pips loss but it was better than freaking out of it at 87 with 500 pips loss
results for June is updated on the twitter right tab.
we made a good month although i was hoping for more profits that this but at the end ,it was solid as Mai , hope most of the people made use of this blog
i would be happy to receive your comments

Chart Update AUD.JPY

After this fast move down in the Risk as i warned in previous charts , i warned as well that it ll be so fast to catch and it went down with more than 250 pips with ZERO bounce , i was lucky to get in on the break of the 77.65-70 level as i shown in previous charts. i hope that everyone got it right and made some green pips out of this good move , the good news is that this is not the end of it ,, i can see now the end of wave 1 of wave 3 down which has formed an ending diagonal as shown in the chart.
as i speak now its testing the upper resistance of this pattern and breaking it , i m showing in the chart the 3 resistance levels i m watching closely for an entry to ride this beast down again , first one comes up in 75.80-76.25 , and that's the 4th wave bottom and top and the 38% ret. then the 76.60-70 level which is a very solid resistance and then the final line of defense is 77 level which i find it very unlikely to break or even test.
i recommend building a short position at this levels , i ll go half position at 76.25 then add the second half accordingly , maybe at 76.60 or at the break of the low
if the trend didn't go up to test this levels and just go break the low from here , i don't recommend selling before the trend at least hits 75.80 and then breaks the low cause the RSI is very deep in the oversold area and it needs a relief before it can grab a momentum for another fall.
so the plan is ,, building short position at this shown levels , short at the break of the low only after the price tests the first resistance level.
goodluck all

Chart Update AUD.JPY

As shown in the previous chart , the price broke up the 4th wave pattern into wave five , a break of the red line shown on the chart is a strong signal that this corrective wave 2 ended and a start of wave 3 in progress , and i ll be looking to short at that break .
second scenario is for the trend to move up to the resistance zone starting from 78.60 to 78.20 where i ll be looking to establish a short position there to capture the 3rd wave right from its start .
i myself traded this small move up but i didn't make it as an official trade , but as said before , sometimes i post a very accurate charts and its your choice to wait for me to get in or to go in yourself and manage your trade .

AUD.JPY

Morning traders , first i wanna get back to the chart i posted on our last working day on Friday where i warned of a bounce and break of the channel in the AUD.JPY for a corrective wave , i guess a lot of people got caught up short in this bounce but i hope no one did from the followers of this blog , the chart was a clean accurate analysis and based on a strong case , a lot of people who followed my last AUD.USD short at 8670 that i closed at 8630 might thought through this move down that i closed it early but i trade what i see and analyze , and i seen the downward momentum getting very weak with a bounce coming and i saved our position from going into red with around 70 pips but instead collected some green pips and ready to short from a better level , but as i stated before i m moving to the AUD.JPY as it holds a very clear Elliott waves count and that will be my chart for this week.
in the displayed chart , i believe we are finishing the wave C of the Flat correction before the wave 3 down which comes in very fast and with the highest momentum which makes it sometimes hard to catch , i see this triangle 4th wave pattern breaking higher into the fifth wave which i ll be stalking the end of it for a short to ride this 3rd wave down from a good position , i m watching the s&p 500 going into the c wave this session to finish its correction too.
i think we might see the top of the risk for the next few days on today's session , so try to be close to ur trading platform for a fast trading signal alert.

AUD.JPY

i just closed out short on the AUD.USD 0.8670 at 0.8730 with 40 pips profit , some might think i closed that earlier than it should be ,, well , i have 2 reasons for closing this position
1- i m looking to switch into AUD.JPY as it has a better Elliott Waves clear setup while the AUD.USD is too noisy , and it drops more than the AUD.USD so its a better profitable pair for me at the moment
2- i m seeing a divergence on all indicators that might signal a short term bottom formed after the AUD.jpy went down in 3 waves which i labeled as wave B with Wave c up to go before the downtrend resumes , so we can establish the short position form a better floor
maybe the pair just sinks again but i wont regret closing this position as i trade what i see on the charts and i trade only good setups , that's why most of our trades r successful , so for now , i see a solid case of a short term bottom and i m gonna follow that case and short from a better position but this time it ll be AUD.JPY

USD.CAD

Possible trade i m watching but i still think it might go right up from the current position but i ll be stalking its move down to long

Chart Update

My Last Chart was so successful as i anticipated a push to the 8750s level then a move down to the 8650-60 level which will support the trend to bounce up ,, but
where to go from here
the move down from the highs on all pairs i m watching is soo choppy and don't give a clear impulsive move down to support our immediate bearish bias
we even witnessed a new high in the NZD.USD , so i m now watching 2 possible counts for this trend , both of them is medium term bearish but short term .. they r in opposite direction.
first count as shown in the chart is showing a possible leading diagonal with wave 2 to go or might ended at the recent push up and wave 3 to go or to start after a little push up to the 88 level
second count showing this move down as a possible ABCDE correction in a possible wave 4 with wave 5 up to go to new highs before the correction emerges
the break or touch of 8550 will shift the focus to the first scenario ( short and medium term bearish)
the break of the 88 level will shift the focus to the second scenario ( short term bullish medium term bearish )
i ll update the chart as soon as i make sense or get more confident in either ways of this counts

Chart Update

Chart talks for itself

Closing the second half of our AUD.USD 0.8840 short at 0.8680 , expecting a bounce of the 8650-70 area , and with the Feds rates tonight , i wanna be flate before that news , we made a total of 115+160=275 pips on that trade ,,

We closed half the AUD.USD short at 8725 with +115 pips profit , i m targeting now 8570 which is the 50% ret. of the recent rally up as shown in the previous chart

Eur CHart

that is a EUR.USD chart i posted earlier on some forum but i forgot to post it here ,, it was signaling a near top as the price broke above the 200 MA on the 4H chart 2 times since the break down from the 1.51 level , and it collapsed after a brief pick over this line , i anticipated the 1.24-25 area to be the top before the break down from this line again and it happened today , that might be a signal as well for further losses

i m expecting a retrace of 38% to 50% at least before the next move whether up to wave 2 and down , or up to some other bullish wave count.
notice the divergence on the MACD and almost any other indicator to signal the possible end of this rally and a start of a correction
we are full short at 8840 , first target 87 second target open

this chart i m sharing with u guys to present the 2 years trend behavior for the AUD.USD , we always seen a rally around 800 pips before a ret. which always goes to at least 38% ret. of the rally , and thats what i m trying to trade here , i believe we have witnessed the rally and we r witnessing now or about to witness the down correction of that rally , and as much as the rally goes , as much as the ret. goes , as example , if the rally was a 500 pip rally then the 50% ret. will be 250 pips lower but if the rally is a 800 pips rally then the 50% ret. will be 400 pips which makes it a better and more profitable trade .
please study the current chart as it gives everyone a better understanding of the trend behavior

Chart Update

Morning traders , i m currently stalking the end of this very extended move up before we move to at least a correction , i believe we r currently in the final 5th wave up and we could see some ret. during this week , i m watching this possible 5th wave count as i expect a push high to the 8850 resistance level to complete wave 3 of the 5th wave and then a minor ret. before the final push up ,, the last push will be the 5th of the 5th which might come so brief and might end in the 8880s area up to the 90 level which is the final level of resistance i m seeing to cap this trend , its very unlikely for me to see the trend pushing through this resistance area without a proper at least 200 pips correction , so i ll be trying to catch the top here when i see some evidence of proper wave 5 completion

Chart Update

If i m right about this then the trend should go like shown in the chart ,, but it wont be confirmed to me unless i see it breaking down from the minor ending diagonal inside the bigger ending diagonal

Possibility

Could that be an ending diagonal within an ending diagonal or its a break high for wave 5 ??

Consolication and non-sense Movements

Reason i m not updating the blog with chart more frequent like before is that the market is in a consolidation movement , it moved up and down in the AUD.USD in a 150 pips range for long and me as a medium term trader , i cant throw myself into a trade unless i make sense of the short and medium term movement.
i m monitoring multi Elliott Waves possible counts in the AUD.USD but i m not sure enought to go into a trade , i m watching a possible 4th wave pull back in the AUD.USD before the down correction starts but at the same time i m considering the possiblity of an ending diagnoal pattern emerging now .
will post charts as soon as i make sense of the market movement.

Trade update

So far the price action is following my earlier chart ,, the price found support of the 8570 level i pointed in my last post and it did made this bounce ,, i m watching if the trend will try on new highs or it ll hit 8610-30 area and go down again.
the move down looks to me more like a 3 waves so far but will wait to see how the assian session will take the trend .
i closed the hedge earlier at 180 profits and i closed the second half short at 5 pips profit cause i wanna make sure when i add this second half , i added of the top or after the up trend line breaks down , to limit any loss if the trade didnt go right.
stay alerted to the twitter

Chart Update

I m updating the AUD.USD chart with 2 possible Counts , if i m right on this Elliott waves count , we Porbably finished the 5 waves up in Wave C ,and we r headed south , the supports i m watching here is 8570 , 8530 , 8500 , at one of this supports probably the first 2 , we will see a bounce up which shouldnt make a new high if i m right on that count.
if we see the 85 level breaking with good momentum then i ll be more confident in calling that medium term AUD Top before we might retrace the hole rally down within the next week or 2 , but if we see a new high that still not invalidate the bearish scenario i m anticipating but i ll need to see a clear break of the 87 level to start considering a more bullish bias.
we closed our hedge at 8630 and we addes short at 8580 , lets see how we can get out of this position with profit , stay alerted to the twitter.

Short Term Chart

morning traders , i hope that everyone is following me on twitter there for an update for our position , i m gonna start some little short term trades to push our profits this month , i m seeing here in this chart an ending diagonal with divergance on the hourly and 2 hours chart that points to a possible correction , i m looking to sell around 8580-8600 which is the top of the channel and the ending diagonal and the target for this trade will be set on twitter.
for our current position i ll alert on twitter where to take off the hedge or add shorts.
i wanna see how this correction i m expecting will deal with the channel support before i decide on anything else.

AUD.USD Chart Update

A Fast chart update for a possible count i m watching ,, the other count points to 85 before the down leg ,
we r short 1 unit at 82 , i wont set a stop loss on that one now , i ll add to it when i see evidence of a top , if u wanna hedge u might wanna use this chart

Correction ending Scenario

i m watching currently this possible wave count which points to another push up toward the resistance zone between the 2 dark red lines before more downside to come.
i m watchin the possiblity of another count that shows the Correction ended at 8270 but i m kinda more into the first scenario ,, might add to our position as soon as i see evidence of top rejection

Trade Charting update

as shown in the earlier yesterday's chart , i was looking to a channel 5 wave down with resistance at the channel borders to add short and ride the 5th wave down , we did add short at 82 which was pretty much the top and we r now targeting the area between the red line shown on the chart which is the Yearly low , and the dark red line which is the phsycological 80 level.
i ll be looking to cover the short as planned on the test of the yearly low althought i m confident of more lows to come but after the clear 5 waves down from the top , i m anticipating a rebound of this area back to the 8170-8250 area before we start another wave down .
as shown in the chart there is multi indicators forming now Divergance to signal of the coming bounce , RSI OSC MACD and pretty much every indicator will show this Divergance after the test of the resistance area.
in such cases , after 5 waves down its more possible for the ret. to end at the 4th wave level before the start of the next wave down.
cause we r in with only half position and we dont have the flexability of cutting a part of the position and leave the other part to work so i m takin the position off and then i ll be looking to reshort when i see eveidence if the coming correction endup.
but i m expecting it to be a very short bounce up as the downward momentum is growing on the daily chart so make sure u follow me on twitter for any sudden position adjustments

Position Taken

We Are Short AUD.USD at 0.82 as (( Alerted on the twitter and shown on the twitter tab at the right side of this blog ))
i m considering 2 scenarios now , first one of a break straight down ,, second one of a test of the 8240 resistance where i ll be adding the second half of the position before the drop.
and i m holding the possiblity of a break down from the test of the channel resistance as well
Stay alerted to the blog or the twitter for position updates

Next Trade Idea

Goodmorning traders , happy start to the week with more than 400 pips profit this month and we are still on the second week of the month.
i had to close our position as i explained before for the extreem oversold level the AUD.USD reached and as we r in with only half position so i had to cut it to enter again on a better price level
i cant say for sure yet that it found a floor for little bounce up in wave iv before the 5th down which i anticipate it ll break the yearly lows , but i m posting this chart to share a little possibility that i have in mind for the next short entry point ,,
the correction wave might form various correction pattern and i ll have to wait to watch how this correction will form in waves to pinpoint the best shorting position so (( this chart is just a little idea that will develope with the price action ))
last trade we made what i like to call A PERFECT TRADE , we shorted at a position just 30 pips awaye from the top and we closed the positon at around 10 pips from the short term base it formed before it bounced around 30 pips higher so far as i m writting this post.
so in other words ,, we captrued 98% of this wave down , good push for the month start
i m targeting 1500 pips by the end of the month ,, so lets work hard for it :)
i love to hear ur comments and connect to ur thoughts

Position Closed

Closed the AUD.USD short at 0.8110 , with +325 pips profits
i recommend following me on twitter as it allows faster access to position and blog updates.
if i had a full position i would have probably closed only half position and leave the other half to work ,, but the move down started on a tricky day ( Friday + NFP ) so i didnt want to put a full position on a day like this but i ll be looking to re-short when i see a clear correction pattern.
i hope everyone was fully alerted to my positions and trades and made some good profits so far this month.
love to hear ur comment and suggestions

Trade Charting Update

sorry guys for not updating this on time ,, but i was frequently updating this position on the twitter so make sure u follow me there or at leadt follow the twitter tab on the right side of this blog.
with this strong conviencing push down that i anticipated in yesterdays chart and trade , i m seeing a start of a wave that will take us to a lower low , i m looking to add to this position as i wanna set a target for this move down beyond the yearly low so i need the flexability of having a full position to close half of it on the yearly low .
as shown in the chart ,, i m anticipating a rebound that could be limited and short due to strong momentum down , i ll be watching how the waves will develope to pinpoint the best shorting appourtunity which ill take it throught the weekend , but the levels to watch starts from 8345-80 , stay alerted to the blog and the twitter for shorting alert

Position Taken

I m short AUD.USD at 8435 as alerted on the twitter
i ll alert for the stop loss after few hours as i follow the price action but i would normally hedge if above 85
charts to follow in few hours

Accurate Prediction

i m showing in this chart the scenario that i was anticipating it might happen with out current price action
the move up in a correction that happened from the 10th of Mai to 13th , where the price moved up then consolidated in a bullish flag then it broke up but didnt mannage to make a new high then broke down to the 3rd wave down ,, i was very hesitated to jump into the long side althought i was posting some charts here showing possible rebound up cause i felt this scenario might come into play and i think we r pretty much into it right now .
i might wanna jump in into the short side when i see the proper setup but i ll be very cautious as i m expecting a consolidation in the trend before the NFUP tomorrow
will keep the blog updated with possible trades

Blog Updates

Guys , i added some updates to the blog , i created a twitter account linked to this blog for fast updates that is avaliable on ur mobile for free , including fast trades setup and market daily notes and analysis , and for blog updates alerting
i added on the right tab some other features , like a link to share the blog on facebook or tweet it , and the recent comments and answers which i find very helpfull and worth a read
will start to tweet as soon as i find enought followers there

Next Trade Thoughts

i wanna share some thoughts about the next trade , as i shown in the previous chart , i m expecting a possible bounce of support at possibliy 8410-20 ,, i m seeing a strong down momentum at the momment , i have been doing some studies regarding the upper target for the fifth wave up before the correction ends , i have been looking at the trend pattern from the 10th to the 13th of Mai ,, its very possible that the trend might follow the same price action happened back there .
a long consoildation in the form of a bullish flag that breaks up but fails to make new highs then the next move down starts ,,
i m more in to this scenario for one reason , when i look to the dollar index chart i see a break up coming soon after the pattern thathas been forming there for few days now.
i m seeing the 5th wave if it emerges ending at the daily 20 Moving average at 8562 which will move down tomorrow to around 8540 , i dont ever wanna trade a break up from this resistance so if i m gonna get into this trade to close it around that level then its more wise to wait for it to go there and short as the price aint so far from that level , specially when we have the NFUP coming out tomorrow
and if we mannage to make a half position short above 85 , i think its a very good long term profitable position ,anyways ,,, stay alerted to the blog

Chart Update

Thats an update for the previous chart with new levels as the up move went a bit furthur than i expected , i was expecting a maximum of 8485 but it went just around 20 pips to the upside , i m stalking a good clear correction wave down to jump in to the long side again , i see the 2 possible levels for the bounce up starts at 8460 but i ll be looking closely at 8440-50 then 8410-20 to setup on the long side ,,
i ll be very cautious proceeding with this trades as i dont wanna hold unsecured position in to tomorrows NFEC , i expect a consolidation starting assian session going throught the european session tomorrow before a break out on the report release .
i might have closed our long position on the AUD.USD earlier today a bit early than i wanted to , but cause i have only half position and i didnt have the flexability of having multi positions so that i can cut partial profits ,,, and cause i wanted to cover the month loss ,, i closed it 30 or 40 pips earlier ,

Booking profits on AUD position at 8465

My Trade Plan

In the chart i m showing the possible price movement i m tracing , i see a move to the area around 8460-80 then a potential resistance there which might push the price lower a bit to the potential rebound area 8385-8430 then a move up that has a wide range that i cant pinpoint accuratly right now ,, the upside resistance area i m seeing for now is starting 8500 to 8650 ,, the waves development will be my guidance to trace an end to this correction and a close follow to the equity market as well.
i didnt wanna wait and seek a good short position like last time i shown on a chart an up movement and didnt trade it and tried to trade the other way around with a short that didnt end up well
i m taking my chances on that long and if u r in with me on that one ,, stay alerted to my blog for fast position adjustment that i might do.

Preparing to long full position AUD/USD after the break up

it has been a tensive 2 days and the trend was a rollercoaster , it did hurt me once but i had to sitback and watch the price setting its direction before getting envolved again ,, i see the chart i posted 2 days ago starting to get into play after the price broke that 84 level , and the up movement seen in the equities , i m preparing to long this correction up while i m stalking its ending
i m long half position at 8395 stops at 83 target open for now
will be looking to add short if possible

CLOSING POSITION

Opening position

going long half position on AUD/USD of market price 8395
another half will be added around 8370
stops below todays low at 8285

possible trade

thinkin of going long on AUD/USD at the area 8350-70
i dont wanna fall in the same mistake again of waiting short while the long was the better trade but i m just watching wave formations to confirm this trade , the stop loss will bellow todays low
stay alerted

Trade Result

First half position on AUD/USD shorted at 8230 hedged at 8310 , closed hedge at 8460 with +150 pips and closed position at 8380 with -150 , total 0 pips

second half position on AUD/USD shorted at 8460 closed at 8380 with + 80 pips
Total profit on AUD/USD trade +80

Half positioned shorted on CAD/JPY at 84.30 , hedged at 85.10 , closed hedge at 86.60 with +150 ,, closed position at 8680 with -250
total -100

such a weak results but better than coming out with bigger lose , my anticipation for ending this trade is that i see a big possibility after this surprised move up in the risk today that we will see another rally to 86 area in the AUD/USD or maybe a bit more before the correction ends , the existance of this possiblitiy and how strong the bounce from the 8285 level and this might pretty much turn to a bullish reversal , all this forced me to protect our position from more loss and come out with minor loss of 20 pips on the hole trade .
there is still a possibility that it drops down but i ll need more evidence from the market to re-enter short , one of them is breaking the todays low or even testing it.
about the last trade ,, i forgot to say to add the second half on the CAD/JPY with the second half of the AUD/USD , if anyone did that i think we would have came out with around 150-200 pips profit on that trade ,, but for honesty and real profit and loss pips counting , i wont count that second half on the CAD/JPY and i used the profits on AUD/USD to cover its loss
stay alerted as i might jump into a trade quite soon

Closing trade

Closing Aud Position At Current Price 8380
and the cad /jpy
analysis to follow

Trade working out finally

Finally we started to see some movment in our trade in our favor , will post charts of updates as soon as i get some time .

Important comment reply

King said...
Hey Jesus. What are your thoughts on this weeks data seemingly going to support the aud. Do you think this might go to the strong 87 level before going bullish?

May 30, 2010 6:27 PM
Jesus said...
i expect no rate raise and that will hurt the Aussie


and i was sooo right ,, it went down by 200 pips or something so far