firstly i was little disappointed this morning with the market acting beyond my posted chart although my charts was working perfectly within the last 2 weeks as planned , some bad news continued to follow in the Euro Zone and it was reflected on the Euro that fell to a new low today , i would say it was expected to me as i wanted to see a more convincing 5 waves down which fell in a diagonal and it fit the profile for now as a proper 5 waves down needing a correction of 3 waves up of ABC .
the gold continued its choppy moves which refers to the weak ground its standing on as it failed to perform a proper rebound on any support line it fall and bounced at and i wont call a bounce until i see it over 1160 and that so unlikely for me within this year boundaries
coming back to our favorite Pair the Aussie , i was confused this morning with couple of possible Elliott waves count to anticipate the next move but all of they refer to a bearish long term case but on different defect points
as i m showing in the photos here The Euro preformed 5 waves down and i believe it ll form a ground to bounce back to the 47 area at least and that will boost the Aud up for the completion of the wave c up before it continues its down trend with the strongest wave (3) that will break the 8950 ( latest low )
i see the trend now going up to hit the upper channel or it could penetrate it through to higher levels but as i see the down momentum has been so strong so i believe we wont see a correction up higher than 9250 and i would recommend building a short position starting with the test of the upper down channel at 9150 and adding more shorts on 9180 , 9205 , 9225
this trade will target below 8950 for profit taking
the other side of this scenario would be if the correction reaches over 9320 and that scenario is very unlikely to me which will invalidate this bearish case
ONE MORE THING , we are expecting the GDP Q/Q report early tomorrow , Aud reacts very good to good news and i would see the AUD rally to complete my planned scenario if i see good number on this report followed by the Fed.s rate report which could bounce the market around too , i expect not rate hiking but maybe they will change there lanugauge regarding the futur rate hiking which will fuel my scenario as well
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