28th Dec. Tech. Analysis

Market moved very slowly today cause of the luck of liquidity throught Holidays , nothing much to say actually more than this Chart Update

24th Dec Daily Analysis

As was expected , we are seeing a correction up for all the Risk to form the wave 4 up before we go on the last wave 5 of the major wave 3 , yesterday we have seen the New Home sales report coming out negative and that gave some momentum for the correction to begin , I m watching this correction through 3 Currencies AUD NZD EUR to spot the best selling Opportunity , although I m convinced of this correction to get up to this levels I m showing on the chart but I don't recommend taking long positions in this down trend as they always say ( don’t fight the trend ) , better wait for the correction to end and put a shorting position in the direction of the major trend down .
during the holidays and through the next week we going to notice thin liquidity which might limit the market movement a bit but I expect next week to see the Risk completing its rally against the USD to finish up this correction , I m watching this levels to short at ( NZD 7150 , AUD 8900-50 , EUR 1.4520 ) even if the trend goes up furthur across this points I wont be bothered cause it ll pick my position down on the way down and it would be a good start for the year if we can place this trade successfully
gold found the proper support I mentioned in my last post at 1070 and it rebounded to over 1100 , I would say that this rebound will continue but it ll be limited though
last thing I would like to mention that starting next week , I ll post my morning analysis and during the day I ll be posting only charts with enough explanations on it for the market directions and that will be better as a fast communication channel with my followers rather than 1 analysis a day
happy holidays everyone

23rd Dec. Tech. Analysis

As i stated yesterday that the down momentum might stop the formation of any possible proper short term rebound and it continued the down trend with the tes of 8740 level , gold broke down and settled at the 1080s levels , i believe that the 1100-1090 level is very strong defended resistance now and it ll hold any up movement in the gold within the Q1 2010 i believe
equities (s&p 500 ) made new highs yesterday althought it was rejected fast but it mannaged to hold its gains till the session end , but this rally couldnt give momentum to the Risk to rally with it so i m not anticipating any proper correction for the risk followed by any possible new highs in s&p 500 , i see more pressure on the risk from the gold downtrend and the solid reports coming out of NY .
existing home sales went up to 6.57m and thats a record for the last 2 years , we will be seeing the New Home sales report today and i expect a solid number as well which will put more liquidity in the market in favor of the dollar.
still all the indicators are signaling a correction coming out soon but the thin liquidity in the market is making the market act unnormal for any correction
as i m showing in the chart , price might fall of this levels to 87 which i expect to hold it for correction , if ever it ll grap a momentum for correction i see a possible levels of 8820-50 , 89 top level for rejecttion to more downtrending , will be adding short on the breach of 88 up to 89 to capture the 5th wave down
happy holidays

yesterday as i stated the momentum for the downside was very strong that it couldnt allow a minor correction and it fell right awaye from the point that i pointed on the yesterdays chart , the gold touched under 1090 and rebounded back but still i wont call this a bottom for a proper rebound , actually i m very bearish regarding the Gold in the mid and short term , i see it very likely to break the 1090 level and if that happens it ll be a firm resistance which will cap any rebound high in the futur and it ll open the gate for 1070 level .
yesterday the s&p 500 closed positive with a new high in place , the market was confussed at some point where the gold was falling while the equities was ralling , but i think the next 2 days will be very importante to decide the direction for the s&p 500 as it sits now near the year highs and a breach to this level could bring a short term rebound in Risk Currencies , will be watchin it very closely the next couple of days but considering as well the gold actions cause they proved yesterday that they could be moving in different directions on the short term.
as i m showing in the chart i expect further decline in the Aud , i would say that the 8600 level will be the key for rebound , and the 85 level is strong support as well , i recommend shorting on any rallies down to this levels , i would say in normal conditions ( not a holiday season ) we could have seen deeper rebounds to present better shorting positions but it would be wise to anticipate the fact that there is not enought liquidity to present a perfect shorting position and it ll be wise to short from the first possible resistance level till jan.
if a rebound breaks up to the 89 level it ll weaken the bearish scenario but not iliminate it , till 8950 ,, within the current market conditions i see it very unlikely to happen before a more deeper sink

Daily Technical Analysis 21st Dec. AUD/USD

morning everyone , i would like first to apologize as i went off the blog for couple of days on vacation while all the action was happening , as i forecasted the risk currencies fallen sharp against the USD while gold tested the 1095 level before it spikes up again , i still believe that gold didnt find a base for proper rebound and it will continue its choppy move down with minor rebounds on the way .
the AUD broken the 8950 strong support to complete the head and shoulder signal it was giving for around 1 or more month ago , as i m showing in the chart that i believe we r on wave 3 in all levels , i mean wave 3 in the bigger wave 3 of the bigger wave 3 , the rebound on the Aussie was so weak so far and it faily to preform a proper rebound to creat a chance for ppl who didnt catch this move to short it , on the other hand this could be of the thin liquidity of the holidays season .
i see the price action moving on a minor rebound to touch the 8950 level and bounce down again , the reason i put this 2 lines of possible rebounds so close to our current level is that i believe the Aud is very weak now on any rebounds and it cant form a proper rebound momentum to travel north far from our current point and the downward momentum is very strong that it ll keep any rebound so short , so its better to be safe and short a small amount off 8920 and the rest on 8950 eveb if it travels nourth for 20 or 30 pips it doesnt matter as far as it ll catch ur position up again on the way down.
the red line on the chart is the place where i dont like to the the AUD going there , or i would start considering this bearish scenario invalid .
keep an eye on the Gold as i believe it ll not go north far from here before it head south again and creat a momentum for the Aud and Euro to go down again
i still anticipate the possiblity of the AUD traveling south from our current position as i see it very heavy on rebounding so be carefull and watch the market closely for a good shorting position and dont mess any further downs.

15th Dec. 09 AUD Technical Analysis 2nd Chase

firstly i was little disappointed this morning with the market acting beyond my posted chart although my charts was working perfectly within the last 2 weeks as planned , some bad news continued to follow in the Euro Zone and it was reflected on the Euro that fell to a new low today , i would say it was expected to me as i wanted to see a more convincing 5 waves down which fell in a diagonal and it fit the profile for now as a proper 5 waves down needing a correction of 3 waves up of ABC .
the gold continued its choppy moves which refers to the weak ground its standing on as it failed to perform a proper rebound on any support line it fall and bounced at and i wont call a bounce until i see it over 1160 and that so unlikely for me within this year boundaries
coming back to our favorite Pair the Aussie , i was confused this morning with couple of possible Elliott waves count to anticipate the next move but all of they refer to a bearish long term case but on different defect points
as i m showing in the photos here The Euro preformed 5 waves down and i believe it ll form a ground to bounce back to the 47 area at least and that will boost the Aud up for the completion of the wave c up before it continues its down trend with the strongest wave (3) that will break the 8950 ( latest low )
i see the trend now going up to hit the upper channel or it could penetrate it through to higher levels but as i see the down momentum has been so strong so i believe we wont see a correction up higher than 9250 and i would recommend building a short position starting with the test of the upper down channel at 9150 and adding more shorts on 9180 , 9205 , 9225
this trade will target below 8950 for profit taking
the other side of this scenario would be if the correction reaches over 9320 and that scenario is very unlikely to me which will invalidate this bearish case
ONE MORE THING , we are expecting the GDP Q/Q report early tomorrow , Aud reacts very good to good news and i would see the AUD rally to complete my planned scenario if i see good number on this report followed by the Fed.s rate report which could bounce the market around too , i expect not rate hiking but maybe they will change there lanugauge regarding the futur rate hiking which will fuel my scenario as well

15th Dec. 09 AUD Technical Analysis

morning , here we go with my daily chart

yesterday my chart worked so well except with the big consolidation we r seeing in the Euro where its stuck in the 1.4650 level for hours , although the AUD And NZD managed to hit higher after a bearish gap opening in both of them

the reason for that is that the Euro has been the weakest currency against the dollar so far unlike the AUD NZD and thats why its finding even resistance in doing a correction for this recent down move , so i anticipate by this that the correction for the Euro up wont be that deep before the market lose its grap and head for another league down ,and that i see the Euro is a very good currency to short against the dollar in down moves and the AUD NZD a very good currency to long in up corrections

yesterday the s&p 500 closed in a territory very close of the year highs and it has 2 scenarios , to bounce back of this channel which happens to be the down side of the daily broken trend line or to make a rally up before it losses the grab for the dollar long term bullish scenario

as i look to this equities ,, although the s&p rallied sharp , the risk and gold didn't follow it sharp as i expected and that could be of the thin liquidity today for the lack of reports but i expect some action within the weak with a lot of first degree reports coming up

bottom line ,, i see that the AUD correction still needs a push up to complete the ABC , and it could be around the 92-9250 area where it ll hit the FIb 62& around 9205 and the upper channel and previous resistance around 9220 and the psychological level at 9240-50 , i don't think it would break over 9270 by any means giving the weak correction in Euro And Gold

and this levels will be ideal for shorting

we r expecting the PPI AND long purchases report today from NY which will give the market some liquidity to move things up

i would like to anticipate the possibility of a second wave penate which comes in 9250 bounce down from here but its very unlikely to me and i would see the rectangular