AUD.USD Chart Update

Here is the 2H and 15MIN Chart update for the AUD.USD

AUD,USD Long And Short Term EW Count

Weekend Technical analysis (S&P500 , $I , AUD , EUR , CAD)

Hello Traders
this weekend charts will be very important as the markets started to recover a bit from the summer long choppiness and offer some volatility which i expect to last till November before we get into the holidays seasons thin liquidity again.

-- (( S&P 500 ))

FIRST thing i wanna look at is the Equities charts , as shown in the chart attached here that the s&p 500 looking like its forming an ending diagonal pattern which might break down very soon , notice also that the momentum is fading from this rally and its signaling at least a short term correction will be on the way very soon which will be correspondent with the other scenarios i ll go through with the EUR AUD charts .
i m expecting a spike into the top of this pattern and a reversal into the support zone shown on the chart and then the trend will decide if it ll bounce and start a new leg up or it ll break through the support zone and maybe into a new low , i m not concerned with what it ll do by then as i m looking into the medium and short term moves here to setup my EUR And Possible AUD next trade ,so the long term is not my concern for now . (( make sure u click on the chart to maximize it and read all the details written on it ))

--- (( Dollar Index ))
As shown in the chart we could be in wave 3 up already but the quike rejection off the 83 level might suggest that we still in wave 2 correction which will take the trend to wave c down before a bounce .

--- (( AUD.USD ))
After the correction that took it down into the test of the trend line then bounced into a head and shoulder pattern which took Affect after it break up from the neCkline as shown in the Chart and warned about it few days back on the twitter , the price achieved 161% Fib Ext. of this head and shoulders pattern.
currently the Aussie looking pretty much like the S&P 500 chart and The scenario i reviewed , the trend is getting weaker and weaker and the momentum is fading as it approaches the resistance zone which lies between the 161% - 200% FIB EXT. of this H&S Pattern and the yearly highs at 0.9385 , i dont see a break up from the resistance zone i shown on the chart between 93-9380 without at least a correction lower , which corresponds with a correction lower in the equities as shown in the previous review.

---- (( EUR.USD ))
i m looking into 2 possible scenarios here in the Eur

-First sceanrio ,as shown in the chart , the Eur might have completed a 5 waves down from the top into the 1.2650 area and that bounce up is into wave 2 which already finished A % B phase and going into the C wave final push up into the resistance zone shown on the chart before reversal , a test of the 1.277 level will validate this count , and this count is also correspondent with the final push up in equities scenario and the Aussie push up into resistance zone scenario i reviewed earlier in this post

- Second scenario , as shown in the chart , puts us into wave 3 down already as we might have finished wave 1 and 2 and into wave 3 of 3 down already , as far as the top at 1.2765 isn't violated , then this count is in play although i m still more into the first scenario but an immidate weakness is very possible too

i attached another eur chart which shows the current consolidation similar to what we witnessed before and that EUR bases dont form in such patterns and a break down is very expected


as both scenarios pointing down but within different time intervals , i ll be looking to short of the resistance area between 1.2780-1.2820 and target a break down , if the trend breaks down immediately , i ll be looking to short and bounce up to take advantage of this wave 3 down .

---- (( CAD.USD ))
i rarely setup a trade on that pair as its daily chart looking so choppy and consolidation took place for long time now and no clear trend is identified there , but what i found interesting is that i might wanna take a trade into this consolidation by buying into the strong support zone as shown in the chart and sell into the range top as shown on the chart too .

I welcome ur comments and Questions :)

EUR.USD Chart Update

Hello Traders
We have been stopped out of that EUR,USD Short with 10 pips profit on our last position , Total of this trade is 135 pips profit which is pretty good considering the trade didn't move in our way and reversed , the Scalping with half position i pointed at in the last blog post was the key for this trade to be successful as if i normally did put the sell position on and waited for the break of the bottom and it didn't and reversed and hit my stop loss , i would have been out of this trade with MAX 20 pips profit not +135 , it worked well but it don't work that way all the time.
anyways , i m seeing this push down to be the end of wave 1 as shown in the charts and we r now into wave 2 correction , the picture aint so clear right now about what kind of correction we will have , flat , ZigZag , or any other complex patterns , i need to wait and see more waves unfolding before making and accurate analysis of what it could be and the possible entries for the next trade but i m overall bearish on that pair unless i see the 1.2850 level breaks up.
the resistance zone to watch on this bounce up is 1.2780-1.2850 , this 70 pip range will most probably witness the top of wave 2 before more downside emerges , we might have finished wave A Already or it might has one more leg to complete 5 up .
on the other hand , this strength will take the commodities to some very overbought levels which will reverse the trend for a correction and that will help the Eur resume its down trend then.
Happy weekend everyone , and good thing that the mess up we had at the starting week of the month is fixed up now and we have erased the losses and even made slight profits throw this last couple of days , more to come within this month .

EUR.USD Trade Update

Hello Traders
after shorting Full position as alerted yesterday on twitter at 1.2750 and closed half at the move down to 1.2660 at 1.2675 with 75 pips profit , i re-added this second half at 1.2745 and now as we r testing the 1.27 level i closed this half position again at 1.2695 with 50 pips profit
basically .. i scalped this wave 2 consolidation with the first half position and made 125 pips profit while i left the other half as the main trade position hanging there on the top of the wave 2 range , i m moving sl into 1.2770 for now , targeting 1.25 for that trade.
so even if we get stopped out now with 20 pips loss , we still made 125 pips profit so far with the scalping half position , it is a very good managed trade so far as we took the risk off the table and even guaranteed 100 pips profit at the worst case scenario of getting stopped out now , i will work this half position scalping strategy in every trade i m taking on this blog from now on.
please , if u r following my trades , stay alerted on the twitter for position adjustments , as promised , i ll end this month with big profits to make up the loss we had in the starting week of the month and the slight negative total loss on August although i wasn't actively trading on that month.

EUR.USD Chart Update

As shown in the 2 charts , the Eur worked perfectly as i expected and it topped out inside the resistance zone i pointed to in the last chart and reversed down , it also formed that divergence in the momentum indicator ( as expected and refereed to in the bottom of the char ) and pretty much every indicator u might possibly look at , with a five wave down can be seen on the hourly and 30 minutes chart , i m expecting a bounce off these levels we r at now into wave 2 correction up which will give a good trade setup for us to take .
the resistance zone that i ll be looking to establish a short position at will be between 1.2810-50 with the top as a SL for that short as shown in the chart .

Position Closure

i close our EUR.USD long at 1.2840 with 55 pips profit as i wanna be flate before the USA session news , i would recommend if anyone followed this trade and has multi units to close half of it and leave the other half working , that's what i would have done if i had a full position not half .

EUR.USD Trade

after closing the Aussie dollar trade on a loss of 170 pips which is the first time since the creation of that blog i receive such a loss , i went long on Eur.usd ( alerted on twitter )at 1.2785 and the second half of the position messed at 1 pip as the low was 1.2776 , i have limit orders to close this position at 1.2870 , it might pretty much go higher but as i dont have more than half position , i cant close half of it at this price and leave the second half working higher and within this market uncertainty , i would take the profits that i have in hands and not get much more greedy about it and lose it ,and one more reason , i wanna cover this loss as soon as possible , as i m not used to start the month on that negative territory , and i m challenging myself to end this month with big profits to make it up to everyone whos following this blog for the lose we had on the Aussie trade.

i might jump in on the short side again as soon as i close this Eur long , as i m trading here the 5th wave up in the c wave which will probably the wave 2 pull back with new low to come but in both the bearish and bullish scenario , after this 5th wave up , we gonna see a pull back regardless and that's what i ll be trading .
rest of explanation can be found on the chart .

why i m not trading the Aussie on the short side , cause its the strongest currency out there and when i place short orders , i wanna short the weakest currency